We saw an example in a case study with IBM Watson where a 9-year-old boy presented at the emergency room with a very high fever and a lump on his neck. Doctors unaided by Watson focused on the fever and attempted to determine underlying causes while treating it—to zero effect—with antibiotics and standard fever reducers such as ibuprofen. After six days straight in the hospital and innumerable inconclusive tests, an attending nurse happened to have an idea: She was right.
By contrast, given the same case with the physicians aided by Watson, they arrived at the correct diagnosis—the obscure but potentially life-threatening Kawasaki’s Disease, which can include complications involving the heart—within 24 hours with no invasive testing. Watson was “free” to hone in on Kawasaki’s Disease because it comes unfettered with natural human instincts such as focusing on a high fever and assuming it’s probably driven by infection (hence the irrelevant prescription of antibiotics).
Another signal difference between classical statistics (again, typically regression analysis) and machine learning is the very fine level of detail machine learning can generate from the data. Here’s an exhibit from the McKinsey article showing “value at risk from customer churn” for a major telecom provider. The dark green downward-sloping line is a classic regression curve, whereas the multicolored isobars are generated by machine learning, with the warmer colors indicating higher degrees of risk. To pose the inevitable rhetorical question, which would you find more useful as the hypothetical executive in charge of customer relations at this telecom?
One reason it’s called “Big Data” is that given the massive computing firepower we can increasingly bring to bear, we can let machines loose on parsing the data without needing to have any ingoing hypotheses. The Big Data will reveal correlations we hadn’t thought of—and maybe never would have thought of. My favorite example of this (OK, I admit it’s almost too memorable) is when the irreverent CEO of the online dating service “OK, Cupid” published the finding that his data scientists had discovered there was a very high correlation between beer drinkers and people who wanted to have sex on the first date. Not an association, I imagine, most of us would have hypothesized.
But back to Law Land.
Where could you possibly start? McKinsey invokes a thought-provoking and instructive analogy to M&A strategic planning. Because, not to be oblique about it, if you don’t have a strategy for how machine learning could benefit your lawyers and your clients, don’t even pass Go.
We find the parallels with M&A instructive. That, after all, is a means to a well-defined end. No sensible business rushes into a flurry of acquisitions or mergers and then just sits back to see what happens. Companies embarking on machine learning should make the same three commitments companies make before embracing M&A. Those commitments are, first, to investigate all feasible alternatives; second, to pursue the strategy wholeheartedly at the C-suite level; and, third, to use (or if necessary acquire) existing expertise and knowledge in the C-suite to guide the application of that strategy.
And of course employ the familiar and standard techniques of change management:
Start small—look for low-hanging fruit and trumpet any early success. This will help recruit grassroots support and reinforce the changes in individual behavior and the employee buy-in that ultimately determine whether an organization can apply machine learning effectively. Finally, evaluate the results in the light of clearly identified criteria for success.
I hear you saying, “But we’re not there yet.”
Fair enough, but that’s a truism about any powerful new technology. When it first arrives on scene, how to apply it—never mind its climax stage “highest and best” application—is always far from obvious. It requires trial and error. To use hopefully-helpful examples from the past, the Wright Brothers had no idea what heavier-than-air flight capability would actually be used for in any commercial (much less military) context.
Watson sounds really neat, but will it really make more of an impact on law practice than other machine learning systems? I’m unconvinced.
There is no current single overarching best machine learning technology, rather different best approaches depending on the problem, and constant advances in understanding of what the best approach for a specific problem is. IBM is devoting a lot of resources to Watson, but other big companies are also pouring money in to machine learning (e.g., Google, Microsoft, HP, Facebook, Baidu, Amazon). Perhaps as important, lots of companies are building machine learning technology for specific verticals (like us with contract review). Current machine learning is quite problem-specific, and these companies are getting experience honing their technology for their particular use cases. Will Watson’s technology really be better for specific verticals (like law, or sub-areas within law) than companies focused on those specific verticals?
For a much more detailed analysis of these points, see my recent post “One Ring to Rule Them All? Will IBM’s Watson Transform Contract Review and Law Practice?”:
http://info.kirasystems.com/blog/one-ring-to-rule-them-all-will-ibms-watson-change-law-practice
I have read the ASE posts on Watson and machine learning as using Watson as an example, in fact as almost surely the only example most of us would recognize by name; not as an endorsement much less a prediction.
The McKinsey article contains some additional information that strikes me as crucial, specifically the need for users of “machine learning”, especially in areas like Law, to have access to two classes of personnel: “Quants” and “Translators.” The harder position to fill will be your translator, who will need to be able to work both directions with something like equal facility. It is not just explaining to the C-suite what that graph actually says and why you should find its results reliable, it is being able to take strategic directions of the company and explain to the Quants what is required. If the problem is not understood properly, if there is not clarity by all parties as to what counts as an answer to the problem, then the Quants will go off and do their thing, and it may be some fair time before anyone knows whether the problem has been addressed in ways that are in fact useful.
Where will one find / how will one develop the Translators?