It has become bromidic to observe that we’ve moved from a linear growth market, ever up and to the right, to one of flat demand (did someone say, “growth is dead?”). We are, in short, in a battle for market share.

Welcome to the rest of the economy.

That’s the bad news and the good news. It turns out the “rest of the economy” actually knows quite a bit about surviving and even thriving in a battle-for-market-share environment. Just think about it: How fast does demand for food, personal care products, retail banking, utilities, or transportation grow? Basically with growth in (a) GDP and (b) population. In the very low single-digits, in other words.

But just by virtue of my listing those sectors, you’ve already begun to realize, and imagine, how particular companies in those areas can work on out-growing their sector. Food? Be Whole Foods. Personal care? Be Gillette. Retail banking? Be Countrywide or Washington Mutual. (Actually this is one at the bullseye center of the economy where you better tread ever so gingerly.) But you get the idea.

That’s why a recent article in Strategy + Business is useful. (S+B is published by the former Booz & Co. consulting firm, which had to have been one of the most unfortunate names known to man until they were acquired by PwC and renamed “Strategy &,” which confirms that you should never jump to conclusions about the worst possible name.) The article is Growing When Your Industry Doesn’t, and here’s how it starts:

If we had a nickel for every executive who appeared on CNBC and blamed his or her company’s inability to grow on a weakness in the market, we’d be richer than Croesus. Of course, there’s a reason this explanation for uninspiring performance is so common: It’s readily available. At any given time, roughly half of all industries are growing below the level of GDP. And it’s only natural to blame something external for one’s problems.

The trouble is, a weak market isn’t a valid excuse. Plenty of companies that achieve above-average shareholder returns compete in average or below-average industries.

In other words, it’s up to you as leaders of your firm to figure out a way to achieve superior performance in industries “that aren’t doing anything special—that are just bumping along with the economy,” as they put it.

It turns out superior performance not only can but has been achieved regularly in every industry—so much so that the success of individual companies turns out to have essentially zero correlation with what industry they’re in: The authors call this “Industry Irrelevance,” and here’s how they illustrate it:

BoozChart

Looking at this it’s hard to discern all but the most imaginary pattern between hot and cold industries and hot and cold performance of individual firms. Essentially I summarize it thus:

  • Companies in industries growing below the global GDP growth rate represent 33% of each of the four quartiles of total shareholder returns, plus or minus 3%. And
  • Companies in industries growing above the global GDP growth rate represent 67% of each of the four quartiles of total shareholder returns, plus or minus 3%.

I dare you to tell the difference between these sectors if I removed the labels from the chart.

Related Articles

Email Delivery

Get Our Latest Articles Delivered to your inbox +
X

Sign-up for the Insider’s Email

Be the first to learn of Adam Smith, Esq. invitation-only events, surveys, and reports.





Get Our Latest Articles Delivered to Your Inbox

Like having coffee with Adam Smith, Esq. in the morning (coffee not included).

Oops, we need this information
Oops, we need this information
Oops, we need this information

Thanks and a hearty virtual handshake from the team at Adam Smith, Esq.; we’re glad you opted to hear from us.

What you can expect from us:

  • an email whenever we publish a new article;
  • respect and affection for our loyal readers. This means we’ll exercise the strictest discretion with your contact info; we will never release it outside our firm under any circumstances, not for love and not for money. And we ourselves will email you about a new article and only about a new article.

Welcome onboard! If you like what you read, tell your friends, and if you don’t, tell us.

PS: You know where to find us so we invite you to make this a two-way conversation; if you have an idea or suggestion for something you’d like us to discuss, drop it in our inbox. No promises that we’ll write about it, but we will faithfully promise to read your thoughts carefully.