It seems to me the possibile explanations for what’s going on—the disconnect between managing partners’ expectations of yet another year of harsh reality, and their optimism about their own firms’ prospects—are three:

• A. They know something top-secret about their own firm that assures it will outperform the market in the coming year, but of course they can’t reveal what it is;
• B. They have nothing special up their sleeves but are wishing and hoping and praying and feel compelled to rally the troops with an optimistic battle bugle call (think of this as deluding themselves);
• C. Or they know it’s bleak and can’t bring themselves to say it (this is deluding others).

Now, answer A would be honest and impressive and an exercise in managerial excellence. The problem is it can’t possibly be true of a majority of firms in a flat to slightly down market. We can’t all be Lake Wobegone children. So A is inadmissible as an explanation of these industry-wide statistics. (For readers unfamiliar with the US author and humorist Garrison Keillor, Lake Wobegone is the fictional Minnesota town of his invention “where all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the children are above average.”)

Answer B: Understandable, and something we can all sympathize with as human beings. But sympathizing with an emotional inclination, and a soft and self-indulgent emotional inclination to boot, is not a substitute for clear-eyed, decisive, and effective management. Good folks they may be, but undeserving of the jobs they’re in or the compensation they’re collecting, in this environment.

Answer C: Cowardice, pure and simple, and there will be a price to pay, as there always is.

Lest you think I exaggerate, here’s “cowardice” elaborated:

Cowardice is a trait wherein fear and excess self-concern override doing or saying what is right, good and of help to others or oneself in a time of need—it is the opposite of courage. As a label, “cowardice” indicates a failure of character in the face of a challenge.

The problem with keeping bad news from people—elevating their expectations to a level where they’ll all but certainly be dashed—is that, as Jamie Dimon remarked at the height of the financial crisis, “Bad news doesn’t age well.”

Delivered any bad news lately?